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 Fumin tax cuts: a large scale under the conditions of excess capacity
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(1), 2007 in China since the second half of the dynamic evolution of macroeconomic
2008 years of China's reform and opening up 30th anniversary. Chinese people always have growth, rapid economic growth, and thus the entire Chinese economy is like a tumble, muddle, endless excitement of children. however, after the second half of 2008, throughout the international and domestic economic situation worsened the situation, despite the decision-making has been 4 times cut interest rates and large doses of macroeconomic policy measures to stimulate the economy have been introducing, while economic growth is all the way down, mm It seems that the Chinese economy but also seems to be a faltering, its own way and the elderly man unresponsive. from the decision-making layer trace the evolution of macroeconomic policy point of view, it can be said is changing Right, turning the rain cloud cover, unconventional and downs. in the first half, based on the rising inflation rate may continue to determine the macroeconomic situation, monetary policy decision-making and fiscal policy has repeatedly received tight. from the monetary policy for the second half of 2007, the central bank to 6 times increase bank reserve ratio and six interest rate hikes. On this basis, first half of 2008, the central bank and then another 6 times to raise the bank reserve ratio , as well as to the June 25, 2008, the bank reserve rate up to 17.5%. In fiscal policy, since the second half of 2007 to September 2008, the Chinese government decision-making has in fact adopted a continuous billion. from the basic principle of macroeconomics, in one year there are more than 1.35 trillion in the fiscal surplus, which is China's macro economy, effective role, and this current has not yet noticed by the majority of economists.
the first half of the government decision-making in addition to monetary policy and tight fiscal policy step by step, the international economic environment is turbulent, volatile .2007 years since the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, global financial markets swooning, wave after wave of financial turmoil on the global economy has a tremendous negative impact. According to the estimates of international agencies, from October 15, 2007 to November 10, 2008, the global financial markets has wiped out 29 trillion in assets. This figure surpassed the United States, Japan, Germany, China, Britain, France, the six major powers of the sum of the GDP in 2007, nearly the whole of 2007 60 trillion world GDP, half the battle. in a wave of the impact of global financial panic, the United States, European Union, Japan and other developed countries and some emerging market economies in 2008, one after another into recession. these countries slowdown in economic growth or even recession, and now has a high dependence on foreign trade of China's exports continue to have some negative impact .2008 January to October, China's foreign trade amounted to 2.18867 trillion U.S. dollars, up 24.4%, still it should be said is a high growth rate. However, since September, China's exports have fallen every month in September rose by 21.4%, 10 month growth rate fell to 17.6%. according to latest customs statistics, to November , appeared in China's exports since June 2001 the first negative growth since a year earlier, down -2.2%. Perhaps even more worrying is that in November 2008, China's imports declined over the same period 17.9 percentage points, from an angle, further weakening of domestic demand. National Bureau of Statistics announced on December 16 the statistical results show that our generating capacity in November fell 9.6%, record the biggest monthly decline. Prior to October, power generation occurs 4.65% negative growth for 10 years, the first time in a single month of negative growth. generating capacity rapidly decreased, from one side shows the domestic industrial production growth rate much slower, leading to the market demand for energy greatly reduced. The figures are full show that China has entered a growth rate of macroeconomic decline channels.
2008 decision-making in the first half continued tight monetary policy, the stock market financing difficulties. RMB appreciation after another, the deteriorating international environment, so that Chinese enterprises engaged in foreign trade rising costs, reduced orders, and thus operate more steep. In this economic environment, both inside and outside the case of some sinister, corporate tax burden has continued to increase. Statistics by the Ministry of Finance first half of 2008, the Chinese enterprise income tax rose 41.5%. enterprises increase the tax burden on the face of RMB appreciation, tight monetary policy, capital chain shortages and increased labor costs for Chinese enterprises , is undoubtedly worse. In this case,UGG boots, the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and other regions shut down and the collapse of a large number of private enterprises, not surprising.
2008 exports since the second half of the monthly decline, as well as a large number of small and medium scale more private enterprises to stop production or close down, further entrepreneurs will naturally have a great negative impact on business confidence. in accordance with the National Bureau of Statistics monthly report, China's entrepreneur confidence index has gone from 140 before and after the first quarter of 2007, up and down the high fall to the third quarter of 2008, 123.8. particularly in the third quarter of 2008, the industry business confidence index fell across the board, respectively, a year earlier than the second quarter and down 11.0 and 19.2 points. Among them, the real estate entrepreneur confidence index was only 96.4, down 22.0 points over the second quarter, fell the most obvious; manufacturing business confidence index was 119.3, than in the second quarter dropped 13.6 points. business confidence index fell rapidly, the natural desire of business investment mean dropped, leading to economic growth, one of four engines (the other three requirements of household consumption, government purchases and investment, as well as export) is a serious shortage of corporate investment in power, so close to   Since 2008, China's stock market all the way down, the Shanghai index from October 16, 2007 the highest high of 6124.04 points, all the way to According to statistics, China's financial assets in October 2008, has shrunk as high as 24.6 trillion, which in turn is equivalent to almost 2007 of the total GDP of China. residents of the hands of the substantial financial wealth shrink, it will naturally affect China through the wealth effect household consumption demand, and direct purchase of real estate and automotive household durable goods, such desire to have a direct negative impact. In this case,UGG bailey button, China's consumer confidence index fell all the way from 2007 is not the original 11 97 all the way down to the very high third quarter of 2008 93.8. consumer confidence index continued to decline, natural and show the other aircraft engines of economic growth of household consumption is more lack of motivation.